L’Asie du Sud-Est 2023
Bilan, enjeux et perspectives
Edited by Gabriel Facal and Jérôme Samuel
IRASEC, Bangkok,
March 2023, 460 p.
ISBN : 978-2-35596-074-1
French text
L’Asie du Sud-Est 2023 offers a detailed analysis of the main political and diplomatic events, as well as the economic, social and environmental developments of 2022 in each of the eleven countries of the region. This analysis is completed for each country by a focus on two personalities of the year and an important news item with striking images.
The book also features five thematic dossiers that address issues of regional concern : the institutional dynamics of the One Health approach, the ageing of the population and how it is taken into account by public policies, submarine cables at the heart of South-East Asian connectivity, the development of the Mekong basin and its many actors, and the political and linguistic issues of transnational languages.
Practical tools are also available, including a country fact sheet and timeline, and a booklet of key demographic, social, economic and environmental indicators.
This book was supported by :
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Table of contents
Contributors
Foreword (Gabriel Facal and Jérôme Samuel)
FILES OF THE YEAR
The One Health approach : South-East Asia as a prime location for its implementation (Claire Lajaunie and Serge Morand)
Growing old before getting rich ? Economic prospects and Challenges of Population Ageing in Thailand, Vietnam and Malaysia (Grégoire Darcy)
Southeast Asia as a new centre of gravity for subsea cables network (Camille Morel)
Cooperation and rivalries in the Mekong Basin (Frédéric Lasserre and Éric Mottet)
Transnational languages in Southeast Asia : Thai-Lao and Indonesian-Malay(sian) distant friendships (Jérôme Samuel and Nicolas Salem-Gervais)
THE COUNTRIES
Burma - From coup to civil war (Tim Gascon)
Brunei - Between end of crisis and societal transitions (Marie-Sybille de Vienne)
Cambodia - Latent Tensions in Times of Crises (Adélaïde Martin)
Indonesia - Increased international projection, persistent internal tug-of-war (Gabriel Facal)
Laos - Intensification of the crisis against a background of massive debt (Éric Mottet and Karine Peyronnie)
Malaysia - Harapan, hope, forever starting over ! (David Delfolie)
Philippines - The return of the Marcos clan (François-Xavier Bonnet and Elisabeth Luquin)
Singapore - Transitional, Adjusting or Facial Policies and Efforts ? (Éric Frécon)
Thailand - Between recoveries and crumbling (Maurice Compagnon)
Timor-Leste - Increased international visibility, and expected clarification of the political game (Christine Cabasset)
Vietnam - Facing the resurgence of war, the crisis of multilateralism and globalisation : necessary readjustments (Jean-Philippe Eglinger and Pierre Journoud)
Key indicators
Abstracts
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ABSTRACTS
The One Health approach : South-East Asia as a prime location for its implementation (Claire Lajaunie and Serge Morand)
The One Health approach has been once again highlighted during the covid-19 pandemic, notably with the One Health High-Level Experts Panel, created jointly by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the World Organisation for Animal Health, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), and the World Health Organization (WHO). These organisations decided to mainstream One Health, to be better prepared for prevention, prediction, detection, and response to infectious diseases, all while considering interactions between humans, wildlife and domestic animals and ecosystems. We look at the history of the One Health approach, as defined in 2004, and show how Southeast Asia, a hotspot of the emergence of infectious diseases, played a leading role in the international adoption of this approach. We highlight how the region established the forerunner and the favourable elements of One Health. We finally present the tools and mechanisms of its implementation in the region and the evolution of its practices since OHHLEP’s creation.
Keywords : One Health – Infectious diseases – Environment and health – Governance – Scales of decision-making – Prevention.
Growing old before getting rich ? Economic prospects and Challenges of Population Ageing in Thailand, Vietnam and Malaysia (Grégoire Darcy)
Southeast Asian countries are asymmetrically affected by the acceleration of population ageing. Thailand, Vietnam, and Malaysia, in particular, are at risk of falling into the middle-income trap due to a combination of economic and demographic dynamics. The burden of an ageing population, while influenced by the structural, institutional, and cultural characteristics of these countries, could be transformed into a longevity dividend through the implementation of targeted structural policies.
Keywords : Demography of Southeast Asia – Demographic Dynamics – Economic growth – Population Policies – Middle-income trap – Ageing population.
Southeast Asia as a new centre of gravity for subsea cables network (Camille Morel)
In the physical World Wild Web, now made up of more than 500 submarine communication cables, Southeast Asia plays a key role in data exchange, whether at the regional level or beyond the continent, toward North America and Europe.
While the American Internet giants have been helping to relaunch cable projects on the Transpacific road since 2011, Southeast Asia is also the subject of new Beijing-developed infrastructure projects within the framework of the BRI strategy, contributing in making this region a theatre of Sino-American rivalry.
By studying the evolution of regional connectivity, we analyse what the current changes reveal about the future place of this geographical space in the world’s digital scene. As an attractive region, giving rise to both new economic prospects and geopolitical tensions, Southeast Asia could thus become a new centre of gravity in digital networks.
Keywords : Submarine Cables – Communications – Internet – Maritime – Content Providers – Southeast Asia.
Cooperation and rivalries in the Mekong Basin (Frédéric Lasserre and Éric Mottet)
While tensions in the South China Sea and the Burmese crisis are present in Southeast Asian news, few media outlets talk about the rivalry between major powers gradually taking hold in the Mekong River basin region. This continental Southeast Asian region comprises six countries, five of which are part of ASEAN (Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam), and link China, the sixth, to the warm seas. In recent years, the Mekong Basin has become a strategic region where China and the United States are engaged in a muted but very real struggle.
This chapter presents this confrontation from two complementary and intertwined angles. The first part looks at the interplay of institutions established by China and the United States to manage the resources of the Mekong River, while the second part describes the rivalries between the two great powers in the area of development corridors and infrastructure.
Keywords : Dams – Mekong River – Hydropolitics – Regional institution – Rivalry – Corridors.
Transnational languages in Southeast Asia : Thai-Lao and Indonesian-Malay(sian) distant friendships
(Jérôme Samuel and Nicolas Salem-Gervais)
Within the highly diverse linguistic landscape of Southeast Asia (more than 1 350 languages in 11 countries), two languages retain our attention : Thai-Lao and Malay. These languages possess a transnational dimension, as they are official national languages in more than one county, in identical or very close forms : Thailand and Laos for the first, Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore for the second. Following brief linguistic characterisation, these languages are addressed from this transnational perspective, examining the language policies they are subject to, and the underlying issue of their acceptability as common languages, both in their endemic sub-regional spaces and within the Southeast Asian and ASEAN regional framework.
Keywords : Transnational languages – Southeast Asian – Thai – Lao – Indonesian – Malaysian – Malay – language policies – Einbau – Ausbau.
Burma/Myanmar – From coup to civil war (Tim Gascon)
Since the 2021 military coup in Myanmar, peaceful protests and the subsequent repression have given way to a full-blown, protracted war between the State Administration Council (SAC) and a myriad of armed resistance groups, now operating across most of the country, and even controlling some significant parts of the territory. However, no clear military victory seems to be in sight for any party. From a political perspective, the SAC has announced elections would be held in 2023 — although unconfirmed, they might represent a possible exit for a junta faced with unprecedented challenges. Meanwhile, the political opposition seeks to roll out a parallel administration, but lacks the resources to gather steam and credibility, within a complex ethnic and political landscape. On the international stage, the SAC faces Western sanctions and even some level of isolation on the ASEAN stage. However, it is bolstering its re-engagement with some pragmatic partners —including Russia, another pariah power. Society as a whole is deeply impacted by the economic crisis, inflation, soaring poverty rates, brain drain, despair, and the criminalization of the economy. These long-term risks represent an additional constraint for any future political transition.
Keywords : Coup d’État – Civil War – Tatmadaw – National Unity Government – Ethnic Armed Organizations.
Brunei – Between end of crisis and societal transitions (Marie-Sybille de Vienne)
The placing of energy under the direct authority of the Sultan, then the ministerial reshuffle of May 2022, marked the desire to better control the ministers in an increasingly changing international and energetic context, while redefining its security. The pandemic-induced economic crisis, which spared the Sultanate in 2020, hit it hard in 2021, resulting in the departure of some temporary workers. A sign of the times, the government has taken advantage of Brunei’s presidency of ASEAN to promote the creation of a regional Center for Climate Change, based in the Sultanate, and women occupy a growing place in the senior administration.
Keywords : Reshuffle – Economic crisis – Climate change – Women – Security.
Cambodia – Latent Tensions in Times of Crises (Adélaïde Martin)
As ASEAN Chair in 2022, Cambodia navigated through a complex geopolitical environment, with the heightened rivalry between China and the United States, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Myanmar crisis. While 2022 saw the return of tourists and foreign investors, and the economic outlook looks promising for 2023, there are signs that Cambodia is still recovering from the various effects of the covid-19 pandemic. For most Cambodians, 2022 was dominated by inflationary pressures driven by higher global fuel and fertilizer prices, and economic hardships due to growing risks posed by climate change. These issues work as more or less visible tension lines, and contribute to increasing social and economic inequalities at different scales. Within this context, the Government strengthened state control and stepped up its means of oppression against its critics. Ahead of the national elections in 2023, the ruling party won the local elections in June and endorsed Prime Minister Hun Sen’s eldest son as the next prime ministerial candidate.
Keywords : Crackdown – Local elections – ASEAN Chairmanship – Human trafficking – Inflationary pressures – Climate change.
Indonesia – Increased international projection, persistent internal tug-of-war (Gabriel Facal)
Boosted by the momentum of the gradual health and economic mitigation of the pandemic, and energized by its international representation mandates (G20, and ASEAN in 2023), Indonesia is also in a period of pre-election turmoil, with presidential and legislative elections looming in 2024. Coalitions are being organised, as the government is facing criticism from progressive segments for allowing the erosion of some of the institutions that guarantee democratic participation. However, public support remains significant, especially among the upper middle classes, thanks to a relative easing of the effects of the global economic crisis. All things considered, the political landscape is clouded by uncertainties, and the country is threatened by environmental and energy vulnerabilities that will require very strong intervention and anticipation from now on.
Keywords : Geopolitical centrality – Non-alignment – 2024 elections – Chinese investments – Police violence – Environmental degradation.
Laos – Intensification of the crisis against a background of massive debt (Éric Mottet and Karine Peyronnie)
The post-pandemic year of 2022 did not allow the government to turn things around. In the difficult regional and international geopolitical context, several major shocks affected Laotian politics and the economy, including the slowdown in Chinese growth, inflation in the price of hydrocarbons, and the strongest U.S. dollar in about 20 years. In response to the crisis, the government decided to reopen the country on May 9, but this did not resolve the multifactorial crisis in Laos.
Keywords : Socio-economic crisis – Sovereign debt – Post-covid reopening – Environmental degradation – International relations.
Malaysia – Harapan, hope, forever starting over ! (David Delfolie)
In Malaysia, the 2022’s term in office of parliament was full of twists and turns, despite the end of the pandemic period and recovery in the economic situation. In August 2021, the appointment of Ismail Sabri Yaakob as Prime Minister marked the unlikely return of the United Malaysian National Organisation (UMNO) to prominence. Nevertheless, despite a resounding victory in the Johor state election, the government, plagued by internal rivalries within its coalition and a tense social situation, appeared weakened over the months. Called early in November 2022, the general election, which was supposed to lead to clarification of the political landscape, revealed a more fragmented and polarized partisan representation than ever before. This underscored the extent of the country’s communitarian divides. The hung parliament situation, however, allowed the Alliance of Hope to return to power in an unprecedented unity government led by its leader and veteran Anwar Ibrahim.
Keywords : Malaysia – Democratic transition – Covid-19 pandemic – Anwar Ibrahim – UMNO.
Philippines - The return of the Marcos clan (François-Xavier Bonnet and Elisabeth Luquin)
The landslide victory of Ferdinand Marcos Jr. in the May 9 2022 presidential election marks the return of the Marcos clan, 36 years after the fall of dictator Ferdinand Marcos Sr. While President Marcos Jr. aims to “restore the image” of his family, he will quickly face multiple contradictions, particularly in managing institutions charged with recovering the money stolen by his family. In addition, he will have to face the economic crisis linked to the post-covid situation and the war in Ukraine : the fight against inflation, the food crisis and the national education crisis are priority issues for the Marcos administration. President Marcos Jr. seems to want to appease the Philippines’ international relations by moving away from his predecessor’s insults and invectives towards the West, especially the United States, while developing its economic relations with China.
Keywords : Presidential elections – Drug lords – Sugar crisis – Inflation – School brigade – Rare earths.
Singapore – Transitional, Adjusting or Facial Policies and Efforts ? (Éric Frécon)
In 2022, and despite a dramatic rise of executions in prisons, unexpected events supported the idea of possible changes (beyond the usual stereotypes) and, maybe, ultimately, of a hypothetical political transition (in opposition to the belief of a “defective” or “illiberal” democracy, in tune with the so-called “Asian values”). Besides efforts on the diplomatic scene to appear more mature and independent, the government proceeded through short and delicate strokes to be more flexible (e.g. vis-à-vis the use of Chinese dialects), more attentive to the underprivileged (via various vouchers and national conversations named “Forward Singapore”) and more open-minded (by deciding to decriminalise sexual relations between men). It also tried to build bridges between communities – or “races” according to the official documents. However, are these the signs of a first and prudent step before bigger moves – and a new Prime Minister, who should be Lawrence Wong ? Or is it only a political façade ?
Keywords : Activism – China – Inflation – Nation-building – People’s Action Party – Transition.
Thailand – Between recoveries and crumbling (Maurice Compagnon)
2022 in Thailand has been a year of political crumbling of the governing coalition, in power since 2019, partly due to rivalry between General Prayut Chan-o-cha, Prime Minister, and General Prawit, deputy Prime Minister, which could pave the way for a victory of the Pheu Thai party in the 2023 elections. In the diplomatic field, Thailand as maintained a prudent neutrality in a context of war (Russia-Ukraine) and tensions (China-US), and has successfully organized the APEC meetings. On the economic front, Thailand has returned to growth, despite a very disappointing end to the year. It marked the year with a key political and economic measure, the decriminalization of cannabis. This measure is expected to enhance health care industry as well as tourism.
Keywords : APEC – Cannabis decriminalization – Growth – Pheu Thai Party – Political Decay – Tourism.
Timor-Leste – Increased international visibility, and expected clarification of the political game (Christine Cabasset)
Timor-Leste has regained international visibility, particularly since the re-election and inauguration of José Ramos-Horta as President of the Republic in May 2022. The diplomatic activity deployed by the latter is focused on pursuing the rapprochement with its two major neighbours : Australia, an essential partner in the exploitation of hydrocarbons and particularly in the large, still untapped Greater Sunrise gas field, and Indonesia, with a view to its hoped-for accession to ASEAN during the Indonesian chair of the regional organisation in 2023. On the domestic scene, while a certain political fatigue of the civil society is felt after a few years that were experienced as a period of stagnation, a clarification of the political game is expected with the legislative elections to be held in 2023.
Keywords : Timor-Leste – Australia – Indonesia – Elections – ASEAN.
Việt Nam – Facing the resurgence of war, the crisis of multilateralism and globalisation : necessary readjustments (Jean-Philippe Eglinger and Pierre Journoud)
Caught between the consequences of the stalemate of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the aggravation of Sino-American tensions, particularly around Taiwan and in the South China Sea, Vietnam must gradually readjust its foreign and defence policy to maintain balanced relations with its main partners. This might allow for a window of opportunity for France and the EU. In 2022, Vietnam successfully and fairly comprehensively managed covid-19 prevention and started to promote socio-economic development. Economic recovery was strong, as Vietnam may have benefited from a relocation of production from China. However, the coming year 2023 is forecasted to be more difficult for Vietnam as the global economy declines and as the Vietnamese economy remains dependent on export markets such as China, its main partner, but also the USA, and the EU. This situation could offer a good opportunity to implement a consistent economic reorientation.
Keywords : Bamboo diplomacy – China – Economic recovery – Neutrality – War in Ukraine.
